PORTALJABAR, BANDUNG CITY - The Refinery Development Master Plan (RDMP) project is one of the keys to realizing national energy self-sufficiency.

Yayan Satyakti, an energy economist from Padjadjaran University (Unpad), views the RDMP as a crucial step in reducing dependence on imports, particularly for diesel. He believes that as long as national crude oil production cannot meet demand, refineries remain crucial in improving the efficiency and stability of domestic energy supplies.

"From an import substitution perspective, this will certainly increase fiscal space and reduce our dependence on imports. That's clearly a positive thing," Yayan said during a discussion titled "Energy Self-Sufficiency in the Era of President Prabowo" in Bandung, West Java, on Tuesday (January 20, 2026).

Yayan explained that Indonesia has been dependent on market pricing mechanisms due to limited refinery capacity and buffer reserves. This situation makes domestic fuel prices highly sensitive to fluctuations in global prices and exchange rates. With the RDMP, this dependence can be gradually reduced.

"This RDMP is a good first step toward energy self-sufficiency, but we must think long-term. It shouldn't stop at just one refinery; it must encompass all of Indonesia," Yayan said.

In addition to impacting supply stability, reducing diesel imports is also believed to have a positive effect on the rupiah exchange rate. Fuel imports have historically been one of the largest foreign exchange absorbers, so a reduction would ease pressure on national foreign exchange reserves.

Pasundan University (Unpas) economist Acuviarta Kartabi believes the RDMP could be a significant legacy of President Prabowo Subianto's administration if implemented consistently. He believes that building a domestic refinery would create structural efficiencies in the national energy system.

"This could be a good legacy. Hopefully, more RDMPs will be developed in the future so that in the medium term, the energy self-sufficiency target can at least come closer to being achieved," said Acuviarta.

Acuviarta added that reducing fuel imports would have a direct impact on exchange rate stability, as fuel imports are a significant drain on foreign exchange.

"If imports can be reduced, demand for foreign exchange, especially the dollar, will decrease, and that will have a major impact on the stability of the rupiah exchange rate," he said.

Meanwhile, Bonti Wirainata, a public policy observer from Padjadjaran University (Unpad), assessed that the RDMP aligns with the national policy direction outlined in Government Regulation No. 40 of 2025 concerning the energy transition. He stated that strengthening domestic energy processing infrastructure is part of the government's long-term strategy.

"From a public policy and regulatory perspective, this aligns with the government's expectations. However, policies must remain based on actual conditions and evidence-based policy," Bonti explained.

Bonti also emphasized that the success of the RDMP is determined not only by refinery capacity but also by its integration with national defense and security strategies. In a tense global geopolitical climate, energy security is a fundamental foundation of national resilience.

"Energy is one of the gateways to a nation's weaknesses. If energy is disrupted, the nation's resilience is also weakened. Therefore, energy policy must not be fragmented," Bonti concluded. (Parno)